Jind by-polls: psephologists' nightmare



Jind by-poll scheduled to end on 28th January, 2019 i.e. the day on which the votes will be cast, has become a nightmare for experts in psephology that were hired by political parties. Two agencies from which some indications have now become available presented a confused picture until last night’s assessment. The unusual matrix of this by-poll is confusing and puzzling as no clear lines could become visible on the battle front. People are hiding their intentions whereas the candidates and their supporters relying more on not the mood of the electorate but of personal loyalties.
The candidates in the poll fray clearly having desperate time in trying to convince voters that they were the best option but considering the struggle for power in the past in view of the performance of each of the political parties in Haryana, the times seems to be difficult as the by-poll has been made more an issue of prestige than the issues that relate to fundamental values in a democracy and citizen’s aspirations for development. Obviously agricultural distress and unemployment are the biggest issues that have not been addressed during the election campaign now a month old.
Enters the stalwart Om Prakash Chautala ji for a short while whose parole was suddenly called off but before he could be lodged in Tihar Jail again, the statements from his mouth and his ailing wife about Dushyant and Digvijay are frightening. I could not have gauzed that the rift between the senior Chautala and his grandsons has become so wide as to call them traitors and the grandmother wishing that they should not been born in the family. Now that seems to go against both: INLD candidate and the newly formed JJP of the brother duo and their father Ajay Singh.
Indicators, however faint they have been so far, indicate that both Randip and BJP candidate Middha are gaining some strength: of them the former seems to have made an edge during the confusion. Although winning candidate may not make great strides in the Legislative assembly within a short period but it is now clear that eyes of the powerful parties –Congress, INLD and BJP, are set on the Lok Sabha and forthcoming Vidhan Sabha polls which will be held early this year as per indications. It is for sure that Congress as well as BJP has put all stakes into this by-poll claiming to return to power in the State assembly. For BJP winning the next elections will be difficult as there is a nationwide distraction from this party, particularly Haryana in which the Jat electorate is anguished over neglect and lower participation in the governance. Most Jats have not reconciled to the BJP rule in the State and feeling alienated.
On the other hand the intelligentsia in the state is closely watching the caste politics that have imbalanced the democratic value and assigned the progress and development on the back burner. Only the Centrally funded projects in the State are moving ahead but the major concerns of the people of the state lay elsewhere: most of them of the nature of individual benefits with which issues of livelihood are closely associated. The leadership in the State has been squandering large amounts of money on religious extravaganza such as Geeta Jayanti celebrations and huge awards (running into crores) to the sports persons instead of propagating the meaning of good and healthy life styles. State has not adequately invested in remodeling and improving the infrastructure of schools, remodeling the school level syllabus, neglected transport sector and management of district level bus terminuses, public health, maintenance and conservation of heritage value assets and harnessing the talent in Haryana. Ridiculously, the work requiring intellectual investment by harnessing the talent within the State, the assignments were allotted through a process of tender affecting quality and clear vision. Petty politics and appeasement of caste groups have been supreme considerations through all political groups be it was Congress, BJP or INLD. Therefore, it would matter little as who wins the Jind by-poll because it is not going to turn the scales against or in favor of either the ruling party or others. It is rather a test of grit with an eye on the future. It is creating a sort of large scale despair among the people of Jind constituency while rest of Haryana watches with closed fingers. Psephology in this by-election has not a great role to play.

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